Next Year, China'S CPI Will Increase By 4.6%.

Zhang Ping, deputy director of the Institute of economics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, predicted on Saturday that Chinese residents next year

"If our prices exceed 4% in the last quarter of this year, the next year's tail factor may be 3.8% or even higher," he said at a forum in Shanghai. "The price is likely to rise to five (5%) in the first quarter of next year, but from the second quarter, the factor of the chain will decrease rapidly, which will inhibit inflation.

"

China's CPI rose 4.4% in October and hit a 25 month high. Rising inflation and overflowing liquidity have prompted the central bank to raise the deposit reserve ratio two times in addition to announcing the first increase in interest rates in three years. At present, investors are increasingly keen on further tightening policies in the future.

Zhang Ping also pointed out that as long as the Chinese government will be moderately relaxed.

In addition, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' index (PMI) has risen in recent months, and the economic growth has picked up very well. The enthusiasm for big business has already been full of planning and action, and the economic growth potential is still large.

The Central Political Bureau of China on Friday held a clear meeting that the implementation of a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy next year will show that China's policy of coping with the financial crisis has officially withdrawn from moderately easy monetary policy.

Xia Bin, a member of the central bank's monetary policy, predicted earlier that the credit scale would be 7 trillion yuan next year, and that next year's credit policy would be tight and the target of credit growth would be around 15%.

* external demand will be pulled or negative.

Zhang Ping also pointed out that in the post financial crisis era, China's trade surplus may be zero or even negative growth to the Chinese economy.

He said that China's past economic growth was mainly driven by two swords: external demand and monetary incentives, but their role in the future will become more and more difficult. Therefore, expanding domestic demand and pursuing self growth is the only way for China to develop its economy in the future.

"From the point of view of external demand, the driving role of developed countries in world economic growth has been reduced, and international demand for large-scale economic growth in China has been unrealistic and impossible.

"Zhang Ping said.

He said that the contribution of developed countries to global economic growth reached 76.6% in 2000, but dropped to 20.8% in 2008. In 2009, it made a serious negative contribution. It is expected to contribute 30% this year. But the general trend is that the contribution of emerging market countries to global economic growth will gradually replace the contributions of the developed countries.

From the point of view of money, China's current broad money supply (M2) is two times higher than that of GDP (GDP), although there may be room for growth in the future, but it has been limited.

The meeting of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee said that next year, we should further expand domestic demand, especially consumer demand, and stabilize foreign trade policies, promote steady growth of foreign trade and actively expand imports.