Capital Chain Tension Is Not Conducive To Spot Warming &Nbsp; Cotton Shortage In Recent Months

Zheng cotton

The near far contract has been mixed recently, and the contract of the far month has broken through, and the contract in recent months has not yet got rid of the consolidation of the more than 10 trading days.

Recently, CF1201 has increased its volume to 30 positions and nearly 240 thousand hands, with nearly 800 thousand hands in volume.

At the same time, the CF1109 contract appeared to shrink rapidly. The 30 day position was reduced to about 360 thousand hands, and the turnover was less than the CF1201 contract, with only 410 thousand hands.

The author thinks that the phenomenon of rapid shift is directly related to the different fundamentals of cotton in the near future.

CF1109 corresponds to the old cotton, the domestic cotton spinning industry is entangled in the current and the short term is difficult to have the fresh theme to cause the big market, so that investors' interest in CF1109 contract is weakened, this is also evident from its disk trend.

The CF1201 contract and the ICE cotton contract in December correspond to the new cotton in the 2011/12 year. The current drought in the US cotton area is an important hype theme, triggering investor interest and accelerating the shift process.

financing

Difficulties and costs increase.

At present, the interest pressure of enterprise loans is greater, and enterprises are more prudent in long-term loans.

In addition, because banks have reduced the scale of lending, small and medium-sized foreign trade enterprises with insufficient collateral have become increasingly difficult to borrow from banks, and some enterprises have difficulty in capital turnover.

By the end of May, the agricultural development bank had stepped up lending efforts, making cotton enterprises unprepared.

It is reported that the order issued by the Xinjiang Agricultural Development Bank recently is 85% of the loans returned at the end of May, which is 15 percentage points higher than the previous 70%.

The pressure to repay loans has undoubtedly exacerbated the weak atmosphere of the market. In order to repay loans, some cotton storage enterprises have to sell cotton for loans.