The Supply Gap Of Domestic Cotton Market Is Huge.

Our domestic cotton is definitely in short supply, the gap is huge, and imports about 1 million tons of cotton every year.

Now it is the time when India's cotton supply is very poor, so the price is very high. Now the price of cotton in Vietnam is also high, so it is not the time for the domestic cotton market to be white hot. But when the new flower is concentrated on the market, the price of cotton and cotton yarn in India will definitely decrease greatly. Then the new round of competition will start.

There will be a lot of pressure, so individuals do not propose to build too much inventory at this time.

There are still many problems in our cotton textile industry.

First, many mainland enterprises are now investing in Xinjiang. The question is whether so many subsidies can be fulfilled for a long time, so many people plan to go back quickly.

Second, Xinjiang's cotton has so far been subsidized by 4000 to 5000 yuan / ton, which is the three year plan. This year is the last year.

If next year does not give the subsidy, how to do? Next year the cotton cost will arrive 18000 yuan / ton.

Third, at present, a large part of the domestic cotton gap depends on imports and imports of cotton to Xinjiang. The freight cost has increased by more than 500 yuan.

Fourth, how can we sell products to downstream enterprises in Xinjiang? There are still some problems in the industrial layout.

I think these difficulties lead everyone to want to go to Xinjiang in the short term, but many people do not want to go to Xinjiang for a short time. They want to develop in a long term, but they can not survive for a long time and face many difficulties.

Finally, looking at the mainland enterprises, they are faced with the subsidy of 2000 to 3000 yuan per ton in Xinjiang.

In addition, cotton is also in Xinjiang, and the mainland has limited quotas, so there is a lot of concern about not going to Xinjiang and Xinjiang.

Therefore, many enterprises begin to go abroad, and rainbow is the best example.

Tianhong is the first enterprise to go to Vietnam. It is also the largest cotton enterprise in China.

Why Vietnam does not produce cotton? Why is it competitive? Because Vietnam has no quota restrictions and tariff restrictions, and it can freely pport yarn to China.

In the future, I think the domestic cotton textile industry will be more difficult to survive if there is no stunt.

Our cotton ratio has dropped sharply, because our data show that our cotton price is much higher than that of the international cotton price, which can not be changed because our land and labor costs are too expensive.

In Xinjiang, if it is artificially picking 1 kilograms of seed cotton, the cost will be 2 yuan, and the cost of picking up the workers will account for 1/3, and the cost is too high.

Before the launch of the protective price, we can see that the planting area of cotton has been greatly reduced. If the government policy is not very effective, the output of cotton will be worrisome.

But if we subsidize farmers, we need a lot of money, a ton of cotton has 4000 yuan, millions of tons of cotton a year, this number is very large.

Globally, the amount of cotton has been reduced to the level of rigid demand, and the demand for textiles has expanded substantially. But cotton has only maintained its original amount. Therefore, the share of cotton continues to decline, which is relatively difficult. Now there are still many rigid demands for cotton in Europe and the United States and the mainland.

Although many products now change the use ratio of cotton, including jeans and fashion products, cotton is used as a product.

It is impossible to disappear.

Cotton prices in 2010 and 2011 over 30000 yuan / ton, it is this surge of cotton prices has made other chemical fiber industry's explosive growth, the price of chemical fiber prices are also very fast, since then basically no cheap, after three years, the purchase and storage of cotton prices up, to 18000 yuan / ton, 19000 yuan / ton, so that the price of chemical fiber has more opportunities to enter the market.

In the later stage, if cotton has 200 to 2 million 500 thousand tons of reserves every year, it is now calculated that the country has 11 million tons, which looks like a very huge stock, but 250 million tons can not last for several years. This is a stock that will never return. From then on, cotton production in China is basically invisible, and in the next two to three years, our cotton will definitely be in short supply. This gap is huge, and imports about 1 million tons of cotton every year.

How the government arranges the input of cotton reserves in the market and how to manage the quotas will affect the market situation of cotton to a large extent.

It is suggested that enterprises should not build up high priced stocks. After two tests, the cotton reserves have been widely recognized and used in the market. This cotton is looking less and less in the late stage. It is becoming more and more valuable. The price of cotton and cotton yarns in India will drop sharply after the new flower of India is listed.

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What is the trend of cotton in recent years? We can see that cotton prices have fallen for some time, and prices are now about 14500 - 15000 yuan / ton. The two month market is relatively strong. The first is that the auction is close to the end. By the end of September, the state will finish the storage and start three months, and there will be no cotton reserves in four or five months. After the second seed cotton has dropped sharply, there will be a lot of ginning plants.

Moreover, the stage has just been acquired.

Not many, but the price is higher. But when the main cotton is listed, it is estimated that the price will drop in mid October. From the monthly point of view, we throw so much stock and the new flower goes on the market. Our cotton quantity is surplus, and the stock of the enterprise can not be increased much. In this case, if there is no purchase and storage, cotton will enter the market at the same time, there will still be pressure.

There are two reasons why individuals should advise companies not to build high priced stocks.

First, India's cotton market is going down sharply every year, because the financing cost of the market is very high, and it is necessary to find buyers as soon as possible. India enterprises can not digest so many cotton products, so they need to export, when prices are often the lowest in the world, and the price of 63 yuan / lb to India is basically stable.

Two, the US cotton planting area increased by 17%, so its inventory is historically very high, and sales pressure is also very large.

India and the United States wanted to sell cotton in the early days, while the United States cotton inventory reached 4 million 700 thousand packs throughout the year. It was also very high in the history. By November and December, the supply of cotton in the world was the most concentrated, and sales pressure was great.

After two tests, it has been widely recognized and used in the market. It is becoming more and more valuable in the late stage. It will not be much different from the new flower. Now, the reserves are 30 thousand tons, and the price will gradually decrease. I estimate that the price will be reduced to 13000 yuan / ton or even lower at the later stage. Even if 13000 yuan / ton is higher than the cotton price in India, the difference is inevitable. If the cotton price is not high enough, it will see more cotton yarn and cloth imported from India and Pakistan and Vietnam into China. In the 1 to July this year, the domestic import volume decreased, which seems to be the strengthening of the domestic competitiveness. In fact, the difference between the inside and outside price is only 500 - 1000 yuan / ton. Back home, the domestic cotton price is 14500 - 15000 yuan / ton, I think cotton reserves.